Catching a Falling Knife
So far in this series, we’ve been looking at long term general market conditions with an overall bullish sentiment coming through.
General
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As a Computer Systems Engineer, Mathew started Market Analyst (now Optuma) within 18 months of completing his degree. From that point on, Mathew has made it his mission to build the very best software tools available.
Articles by Mathew Verdouw (20)
Low Vix Analysis
Despite all that is going on in the world (wars, inflation, natural disasters, & Taylor Swift’s latest album), Stock Markets around the world have just continued on their merry way seemingly oblivious to everything.
Optuma Labs
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Presidential Cycles
The Presidential Cycle is a four-year cycle where the US Stock Market seems to make similar returns in each of the four years. I.e. We compare all the years of the election (2020, 2016, 2012…) and the results seem to align.
Optuma Labs
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Want to know a better way to determine Trend?
A few years ago I picked up an old copy of a book by Michael Gur called The Symmetry Wave Trading Method. Gur introduced the concept of using a series of swings based on the Average True Range of a chart, or the ATR.
Optuma Labs
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The Secret Wealth Advantage: How You Can Profit from the Economy's Hidden Cycle
Learn about the importance of the real estate cycle and the global economy in Akil Patel's new book.
Optuma Labs
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Optuma - 25 Years and a look at what's next
With the imminent release of Optuma 2 - most likely the largest single upgrade we have ever done - now is a great opportunity for me to take time to reveal the major directions we are taking with Optuma.
Product
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How Professional Technical Analysts Handled the Covid-19 Crash
For the last few weeks global markets have seen periods of greater than average volatility resulting from several factors including the rise of the Covid-19 virus, stimulus packages in response to the economic impacts of the virus, and an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Commentary
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Recovery Planning
The last couple of weeks has been tough (unless you’re short S&P futures!). In this article we look back at previous crashes to see what we can expect to happen next.
Optuma Labs
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Who’s most important in the Financial Universe?
There are a lot of different positions in the financial world. In this post we explore some of what they do and why it is so important for everyone to unders...
General
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Optuma Swing Charts and Scripting
Scripting for swing patterns can be difficult and there are a few important nuances to be aware of. In this article Mathew explains some of the complexities involved.
How to
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Optuma Testing Errors
This post is an update on some errors we have found with our testing tools. Being open about issues like this is very important to us.
Product
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I'm a Survivor
For the last couple of years I’ve routinely stated how important dealing with survivorship bias is in testing. I hope you agree with me that it’s a critical issue that makes it nearly impossible to run a historical test and then being able to repeat those results in the future.
Optuma Labs
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Correlation Cycles
Correlations are an important tool in portfolio construction. But are you aware of the dangers that nearly every analyst ignores? In this post we will review what correlations are, how it can be used to diversify risk and what the dangers are that you have to be aware of.
Optuma Labs
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Market Update - The sky is falling....or is it?
Many analysts are crying that the markets are overextended. Are they? An accidental look at previous recoveries may tell a different story.
Commentary
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Bitcoin - The perfect technical market
I am the first to admit that I ignored Bitcoin (and other crypto-currencies) for too long. The first time I really paid any attention was back in October 2017 when Bitcoin just broke $5,000.
Optuma Labs
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Optex Bands Part 2
Last week I wrote about the journey I took with the Dynamic Market Profile tool and how it showed some promise as a mean reverting strategy. I performed a number of “back tests” (getting the computer to run the simulation with a model portfolio), but could never get the consistent results I was seeing by observing charts.
How to
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Buying Out Performers is Too Late
In this paper we test the results of buying securities that have been outperforming the market. We are told two rules in finance: “Buy Low and Sell High” and also “Past Performance is not a guarantee of Future Returns”.
Optuma Labs
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Optex Bands Part 1
Optex Bands is a new tool we created to measure potential extremes away from the “consensus” price. To explain the how and why of Optex Bands, we have to first take a journey through the evolution of this tool. In this post, we cover Market Profiles and POC's.
How to
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Gann-Based Market Breadth
The subjective works of WD Gann from the early part of the twentieth century are not normally associated with one of the modern pillars of twenty first century Technical Analysis, Market Breadth.
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RRG Weights
In this paper, we explore if a set of securities on the RRG, which is benchmarked against an index that is made up of only those securities can be balanced on the X and Y axis. The results once we include Market Capitalisation are amazing.
Optuma Labs
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